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Ecommerce Black Friday offer maths: how to discount without losing money

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Black Friday is on Friday 27 November. The brands that do well aren’t always the ones with the biggest discounts. They’re the ones that did the maths before they promised anything.

A deal that loses money on every order isn’t a deal. It’s a donation.

Step 1: Work out your true cost per order

For each product you plan to discount, add up everything it costs you to deliver one order:

  • The product cost
  • Delivery, including the part you absorb on free delivery
  • Payment fees
  • Packaging
  • A share of returns, because some orders will come back
  • The ad cost to win the customer

Subtract that from your selling price. What remains is your real margin.

Step 2: Set a floor

Decide the lowest margin you’ll accept on any Black Friday product, and don’t go below it. Write it down. It’s easy to talk yourself into a deeper discount at 11pm on the night.

Step 3: Choose how to discount

A percentage off isn’t your only tool. Often the better options protect margin:

  • Bundles. “Buy two, save” raises the order value while spreading the discount.
  • Free delivery over a threshold. Shoppers add items to qualify, and you give away less than a flat discount.
  • A free gift. A gift can cost you less than the same value in discount, and feels bigger.
  • Tiered offers. Spend more, save more, so the biggest discount comes with the biggest basket.

Step 4: Pick a small number of hero deals

One clear offer beats five complicated ones. Choose a few products with healthy margin and strong demand, and build the campaign around them.

Step 5: Plan for what comes after

Shoppers trained by a deep discount may wait for the next one. Offer something that rewards loyalty after the sale, such as early access to your next launch, so it isn’t only about price.

A quick sanity check

Before you launch, take your best-selling hero product and ask: if every one of our target orders came through at this price, would we be pleased with the result? If the answer is no, change the offer, not the target.

Our Black Friday checklist covers the rest of what to prepare.

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